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Controlling Connectivity: The Impact of Expanding Road Networks on Criminal Violence
Ribeiro, Felipe
Ribeiro, Felipe
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Thesis/Dissertation
Date
2025-06
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Political Science
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https://doi.org/10.34944/n2b5-ef38
Abstract
This dissertation analyzes the impact of new connectivity on violence. It specifically shows the relationship between road investments and organized criminal activity. I argue that the construction of new infrastructural projects creates new economic opportunities, especially in small and medium municipalities. The improvement in the local economy creates a new set of opportunities that attracts the attention of organized criminal groups (OCG). These groups transplant to these new territories in hopes of retaining new payoffs. As a result, these regions often experience significant increases in their OCG competition, leading to spikes in local homicide rates. Analyzing the case of Brazil, this study shows that the construction of new roads increases approximately four additional homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in a given year. I dissect this finding by performing 11 months of fieldwork in Ceará to identify how criminal organizations disperse their presence into previously unoccupied territory. I show how criminal organizations have evolved in the state due to significant changes in the local economy, leading Ceará to become one of the most violent states in Brazil.
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