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THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ON CHINA'S REALESTATE MARKET PRICES
WU, YUN
WU, YUN
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Thesis/Dissertation
Date
2025-05
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Global Finance
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https://doi.org/10.34944/rzap-3c22
Abstract
The real estate industry is not only the pillar industry of China's economy, but also the development of the real estate market has an important impact on the life of Chinese people and the stability of the financial market. Since the housing market reform in 1998, China's urban real estate market has developed rapidly. However, in the process of the rapid development of China's urban real estate market, the price of China's urban real estate has also experienced a huge rise, which is far more than the rise of the per capita income level of Chinese residents, thus exerting an important impact on the housing demand of Chinese residents. At the same time, China's population structure has changed dramatically in terms of age, urban and rural residence, and employment. Population is the main support for the demand of the urban real estate market. The drastic change of population structure undoubtedly plays an important role in the rapid rise of the price of the urban real estate market in China. To clarify the influence of population structure change on China's urban real estate market price, this dissertation explores the influence of population structure on China's urban real estate market price from three aspects of population age, population urban-rural location and population employment by using econometric methods on the basis of constructing a local equilibrium model to analyze the influence of population structure on urban real estate market price.Based on the realistic background of the development of China's real estate market and the change of population structure, this dissertation first constructs a partial equilibrium model of the real estate market after combing the existing relevant literature, and theoretically analyzes the impact of the change of population structure on the real estate market price from the three aspects of population urban-rural, population age and population employment. Second, this paper deeply combs the historical process of the development of China's real estate market and analyzes data on the changes in the urban-rural location, age and employment of China's population in the past decades. The correlation between China's population structure and real estate market price is preliminarily analyzed by drawing scatter plot. Finally, on the basis of the above theoretical analysis and preliminary data analysis, this paper uses the econometric regression analysis method to further analyze the impact of demographic structure change on the price of China's real estate market from the three aspects of population urban-rural location, population age and population employment. The following three main conclusions are obtained: First, in terms of the urban-rural population structure, the increases of the proportion and number of urban residents have a positive impact on the price of China's urban real estate, and vice versa means that the increases of the proportion and number of rural residents have a negative impact on the price of China's real estate. Second, in terms of population age structure, the increases in the proportion and quantity of the population aged 0-14 have a negative impact on the price of China's real estate market, while the increases in the proportion and quantity of the population aged 15-64 and the increases in the proportion and quantity of the population aged 65 and above have a positive impact on the price of China's real estate. Thirdly, in terms of population employment structure, the increases of the proportion and number of employed population in primary industries has a negative impact on the price of China's real estate market, while the increase of the proportion and number of employed population in the secondary and tertiary industries has a positive impact on the price of China's real estate.
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