RESEARCH ON THE MEASUREMENT AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SYSTEMIC RISKS IN CHINESE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN CASE OF MAJOR PUBLIC EMERGENCIES

Abstract

In the new context of major public emergencies, this paper will mainly study the measurement and influencing factors of systemic risks in Chinese financial institutions based on three dimensions: overall situation, industries, and institutions. First, it uses the DTW-MST network model to describe the dependence structure between financial institutions and between industries. It explores important institutional nodes of risk dependence from a network perspective. Then, it uses the time-varying Copula-CoVaR model to measure financial institutions' and industries' risk spillover effect on the whole financial system and analyze the characteristics and differences of risk spillover. Last, it uses the panel regression model to study the influencing factors of the risk spillover effect of financial institutions and explore the sources of systemic risks. The results show that: (1) Industrial Bank (CIB), Changjiang Securities (CJSC), and China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) are the central nodes of the banking, securities, and insurance industries, respectively. (2) The risk spillover effect is characterized by a significant asymmetry and thick tail, and negative news has a greater impact on the risk spillover effect. (3) The value at risk (VaR) and volatility of financial institutions have a significant positive correlation with the risk spillover effect, while the size of financial institutions has a significant negative correlation with the risk spillover effect.