METHAMPHETAMINE ENFORCEMENT ACTIONS IN SAN DIEGO REGION: SPATIOTEMPORAL IMPACTS OF METHAMPHETAMINE CRIME INCIDENTS AND SEIZURES

Abstract

The empirical literature and government reports alike indicate methamphetamine poses a great threat to the United States in areas such as crime. However, the current scholarship on drug crime has limited information on issues related to methamphetamine crime. To date, previous works on drug crime have yet to systemically examine the impacts of drug seizure amounts related to drug enforcement actions on methamphetamine crime. Further, we do not know whether the findings of earlier works extend and apply to methamphetamine crime. The present study, built on these earlier studies, proposes to examine the impacts of two different types of methamphetamine seizure incidents, small-scale seizures, which are most likely associated with street-level methamphetamine enforcement actions (i.e., arrests and citations), and large-scale seizure incidents, which are most likely associated with high-level methamphetamine enforcement actions (i.e., preplanned enforcement actions such as raids and long-term narcotics investigations), in and around target locations on later street-level methamphetamine crime incidents in the target location. In other words, the main objective of this study is to measure the spatiotemporal spillover impacts of large-scale and small-scale methamphetamine seizure incidents. Methamphetamine crime incident and seizure data, covering January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2020, was obtained from the Automated Regional Justice Information System (ARJIS), a division of the San Diego Association of Governments. A two-way fixed-effects (2WFE) spatial lag of X (SLX) model was used to test the aforementioned research questions. Nearby areas based on the target location were defined using first- and second-order queen contiguity method. Larger size nearby target locations were defined by combining areas generated by these two queen contiguity methods. The theories of deterrence, spatial diffusion of benefits, and spatial displacement were applied to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics connecting methamphetamine seizure amounts to later street-level methamphetamine crime incidents. Broadly, the results of regression analysis found possible spatial displacement of methamphetamine crime associated with small-scale seizure incidents while spatial diffusion of benefits was associated with large-scale seizure incidents. The impact sizes and statistical significance of these methamphetamine seizure incidents were dependent on space-time combination. The findings have theoretical, practical, and policy implications for both drug crime researchers and policing practitioners concerned with understanding and suppressing methamphetamine crime.