INSURGENTS, INCUBATION, AND SURVIVAL: HOW PREWAR PREPARATION FACILITATES LENGTHY INTRASTATE CONFLICTS

Abstract

Despite being outnumbered, underfunded, and militarily weaker than the state-backed armed forces they challenge, insurgents have continually mounted long-term challenges. To that end, the puzzle on which many conflict scholars have focused their efforts is that of insurgent war duration. The theory posited in this dissertation claims the capacity of insurgents to survive wartime is a function of choices made before large-scale dyadic conflict erupted––or during a time period I call incubation. Using qualitative case studies of Latin American insurgencies such as Sendero Luminoso and the FMLN, I demonstrate the capacity to endure conflict long-term was a direct correlate of both type and length of their prewar preparation. Incubation was used to set up processes for recruitment, procuring resources from durable networks, and coordinating personnel. After controlling for standard explanations, I also offer statistical evidence that insurgent incubation duration is statistically significant and positively related to conflict duration. The theory and empirical evidence presented here provides a new approach for explaining insurgent war duration.