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    INSURGENTS, INCUBATION, AND SURVIVAL: HOW PREWAR PREPARATION FACILITATES LENGTHY INTRASTATE CONFLICTS

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    Genre
    Thesis/Dissertation
    Date
    2018
    Author
    Blaxland, Joel
    Advisor
    Soifer, Hillel David
    Committee member
    Vander Wielen, Ryan J.
    Vaynman, Jane
    Lewis, Janet I.
    Department
    Political Science
    Subject
    Political Science
    Conflict
    Fmln
    Insurgency
    Intrastate War
    Latin America
    Sendero Luminoso
    Permanent link to this record
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12613/816
    
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    DOI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.34944/dspace/798
    Abstract
    Despite being outnumbered, underfunded, and militarily weaker than the state-backed armed forces they challenge, insurgents have continually mounted long-term challenges. To that end, the puzzle on which many conflict scholars have focused their efforts is that of insurgent war duration. The theory posited in this dissertation claims the capacity of insurgents to survive wartime is a function of choices made before large-scale dyadic conflict erupted––or during a time period I call incubation. Using qualitative case studies of Latin American insurgencies such as Sendero Luminoso and the FMLN, I demonstrate the capacity to endure conflict long-term was a direct correlate of both type and length of their prewar preparation. Incubation was used to set up processes for recruitment, procuring resources from durable networks, and coordinating personnel. After controlling for standard explanations, I also offer statistical evidence that insurgent incubation duration is statistically significant and positively related to conflict duration. The theory and empirical evidence presented here provides a new approach for explaining insurgent war duration.
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