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    Risk Modeling of First Year Student Retention at a Community College: An Early Exploration of Data, Feasibility, and Application

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    Genre
    Thesis/Dissertation
    Date
    2016
    Author
    Schwartz, Mark Scott
    Advisor
    DuCette, Joseph P.
    Davis, James Earl, 1960-
    Committee member
    DuCette, Joseph P.
    Davis, James Earl, 1960-
    Witham, Keith
    Carter, Virginia
    Department
    Educational Leadership
    Subject
    Education
    Educational Administration
    Educational Leadership
    Community College
    Retention
    Risk Modeling
    Permanent link to this record
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12613/3536
    
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    DOI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.34944/dspace/3518
    Abstract
    Set in a medium sized, suburban, two-year community college, this study explores the initial development of an actionable predictive risk model for first-year retention based on data currently collected and to identify target variables upon which data should be collected to improve future versions of the model. Institutional data were analyzed by means of Analysis of Variance and logistic regression and ordinary least squares regression analyses. Results suggested there are several important variables for which data as available but the risk model as developed has relatively low predictive power. The results of this study are used to inform College administrators, faculty, and staff about risk modeling, conclusions that can be drawn from existing data, and provide guidance on additional relevant variables upon which data should be collected. Additionally, recommendations for future research are discussed for this study’s institution and the field of education as it relates to Community Colleges.
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