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    Do Analysts Benefit from Online Feedback and Visibility?

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    Genre
    Thesis/Dissertation
    Date
    2019
    Author
    Khavis, Joshua A.
    Advisor
    Brown, Lawrence D. (Lawrence David), 1946-
    Committee member
    Basu, Sudipta, 1965-
    Byzalov, Dmitri
    Press, Eric
    Shoham, Amir
    Department
    Business Administration/Accounting
    Subject
    Accounting
    Finance
    Psychology
    Analyst Career Outcomes
    Analyst Forecast Errors
    Analyst Forecasts
    Forecast Accuracy
    Learning From Feedback
    Online Visibility
    Permanent link to this record
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12613/1609
    
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    DOI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.34944/dspace/1591
    Abstract
    I explore whether participation on Estimize.com, a crowdsourced earnings-forecasting platform aimed primarily at novices, improves professional analysts’ forecast accuracy and career outcomes. Estimize provides its contributors with frequent and timely feedback on their forecast performance and offers them a new channel for disseminating their forecasts to a wider public, features that could help analysts improve their forecast accuracy and raise their online visibility. Using proprietary data obtained from Estimize and a difference-in-differences research design, I find that IBES analysts who are active on Estimize improve their EPS forecast accuracy by 13% relative to the sample-mean forecast error, as well as reduce forecast bias. These improvements in performance vary predictably in ways consistent with learning through feedback. Additionally, I find increased market reaction to the positive earnings-forecasts revisions issued by analysts who are active on Estimize. I also find that analysts active on Estimize enjoy incremental positive career outcomes after controlling for forecast accuracy. My results suggest that professional analysts can learn to become better forecasters through online feedback and consequently garner more attention from the market. My results also suggest analysts can improve their career outcomes by gaining additional online visibility.
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