Predicting Educational Outcomes For Students Returning From Incarceration

Abstract

During the 2005-2006 school year, 967 students returned from incarceration and were assigned to RETI-WRAP (Re-Entry Transition Initiative-Welcome Return Assessment Process), a ten-day transition program operated by the School District of Philadelphia designed to review, evaluate, and make recommendations for appropriate school placement upon their return to the public school system. The current study employed a retrospective analysis of archival data from the ’05-’06 school year in order to identify those variables that predict successful transition (active in school or graduated). The data included demographic information (e.g., gender, grade, high school credits, and race), educational placement (e.g., regular or special education), severity of crime and reading and math scores as determined by standardized testing conducted by RETI-WRAP personnel. Eight variables were used to determine the prevalence, relationships, and predictive power of demographic, academic, and crime-related variables. Frequency distributions, Pearson correlations, Phi coefficients, and discriminant function analysis were conducted to examine prevalence, associations between variables, and predictions to successful re-entry. A significant Wilks’ Lamba of .945 was obtained for the sole discriminant function. Three variables emerged as significant predictors of successful re-entry: the number of credits obtained, the severity of the crime committed, and the age of the student. Younger students with more credits who committed less severe crimes were more likely to have achieved a successful transition. The amount of variance (5%) explained by the statistical model was limited by the imbalanced nature of the sample, in that few students (21.9%) experienced a successful transition. The current study highlighted the dynamics and overall profile of one of the most challenging and vulnerable populations in the public school system. By using database decision- making and providing a comprehensive framework to understand the characteristics of students who transition successfully, policy makers are in a better position to identify an optimal placement match based on empirical findings, thus decreasing the number of students who drop out of school or who remain involved with the juvenile justice system.