Cognitive Vulnerability and the Actuarial Prediction of Depressive Course

Abstract

A wealth of research indicates that depression is a serious global health issue, and that it is often characterized by a complicated and varied course. The ability to predict depressive course would be tremendously valuable for clinicians. However, the extant literature has not yet produced an accurate and efficient means by which to predict the course of depression. Research also indicates that cognitive variables - and cognitive vulnerability factors in particular - are related to the course of depression. In examining data provided by participants in the Temple-Wisconsin Cognitive Vulnerability to Depression Project (N = 345), the current study aimed to elucidate the relationship between cognitive vulnerability and depressive course using an actuarial statistical method. Results indicated that several cognitive measures predicted aspects of the onset and course of depression at rates significantly better than chance; foremost among these was the Cognitive Style Questionnaire (CSQ; Alloy et al., 2000). The CSQ was found to be the variable that best differentiated between participants who developed an episode of depression and those who did not. Furthermore, in comparison to participants who did not develop an episode of depression, the CSQ was found to differentiate between participants who recovered from a given depressive episode and those who did not, as well as between participants who experienced a single episode and those experiencing a recurrent course of the disorder across the prospective phase of the study. Conceptual and clinical implications of these results are discussed, as are directions for future research.