China's Belt and Road Initiative and Public Opinion on Sovereignty: Evidence from the Former Soviet Union

Abstract

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is expansive. In addition to creating massive infrastructure projects across the globe, the BRI creates new foreign policy dynamics between countries and new attitudes about public goods provision (PGP) and the role of the state within host countries. The BRI is unique because of the nature of the goods being provided and the identity of the provider. Power dynamics between countries involved in this type of sovereign- sovereign PGP are quite different than that of colonizer-colonized, IGO-sovereign, and NGO- sovereign PGP. An original survey experiment tested which aspect of sovereign-sovereign PGP had the largest effect on public opinion toward BRI host governments in Estonia, Moldova, and Kazakhstan. On average, I find that citizens in these three states do not prefer China as an infrastructure funder. I also find that public opinion toward host governments is conditional on exposure to the Belt and Road Initiative. Publics with limited exposure are opposed to the notion of sovereign-sovereign PGP in the abstract, but approve of the concept when asked how it would affect feelings toward their own government. However, when publics have greater exposure to the BRI, the reverse is true. Publics are accepting of sovereign-sovereign PGP in the abstract, but disapprove of their own government for participating in the BRI. Concerns about Chinese pressure to change a country’s foreign policy elicit the strongest responses from those surveyed, followed by physical security concerns, and concerns about the BRI’s effects on domestic policy making. These findings highlight the Belt and Road Initiative’s impact on international relations and its effects on public opinion toward host country governments.