The Skilled Labor Gap: The Case of Welders and Machinists

Abstract

After the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States faced one of the largest labor shortages in recent memory. In 2021, there were 11 million job openings compared to only 6.9 million people who are unemployed yet want to work – a gap of over 4 million workers. Millions of those available openings were skilled labor jobs, and ongoing labor shortages continue to raise many questions. Scholars have long debated the causes and effects of labor shortages, with competing theories and inconsistencies in methodology. This two-part study explores the roles of perceived job attractiveness and skilled labor training and their relationship to skilled labor employment. The first part looks at the national picture of the skilled labor gap, and the second part focuses more specifically on Ohio and Central Ohio. This research develops a model to examine the U.S. and Ohio employment of welders and machinists in the durable goods manufacturing industry to better understand the perceived labor shortages, how they have changed over time, and the influence of key variables. In contrast to popular opinion about the skilled labor gap, the analysis shows that wages and employment have been flat over the last 20 years even as training has increased. Additionally, the results show that these jobs are safer than ever while training and apprenticeships have trended upward. A geographic analysis of Central Ohio also identifies some barriers to work regarding access and infrastructure. These results contribute to scholarly research in labor economics and mesoeconomics. It informs policymakers and firms as to possible strategies to plan for and cope with shortages, such as altering human resource practices, considering diversity hiring strategies, engaging in apprenticeship programs, and developing relationships with post-secondary institutions. This research makes a clear contribution to human resource management theory and practice.