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China's Long-Term Economic Growth Sustainability: an Empirical Approach
Mak, Wendy
Mak, Wendy
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Thesis/Dissertation
Date
2011
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Economics
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http://dx.doi.org/10.34944/dspace/1795
Abstract
This dissertation focuses on assessing the sustainability of China’s long-term economic growth. The evaluation is performed, first, by examining economic and social issues from the past thirty years that shape China to where it is now, and second, by taking an empirical approach in understanding what factors are critical to China’s economic growth. The empirical model framework consists of three blocks representing the main areas of development in China: economic growth, health and environmental development, and the model is estimated with two-stage least squares methodology. We identify strong, simultaneous feedback between economic growth and health development. The estimation results show that continued improvements in the health status of Chinese workers are important to support stronger economic growth in China. Environmental stress is detrimental to China’s long-term health status, which indirectly reduces the country’s long-term economic potential. We test the robustness of our model, and confirm that, the proposed model setup produce a set of forecast values that are closer to the actual values than a model without health- and environmental-related variables.
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